{
    "as_of_et": "2026-10-29 16:37:47 EDT",
    "feed": "REAL-TIME",
    "feed_note": "Coach Massive plan: ZQ futures snapshots are REAL-TIME (not delayed). EFFR/SOFR funding-conditions lag ~1 business day.",
    "current_target": "3.75\u20134.00%",
    "methodology": "CME FedWatch day-weighted / non-meeting-anchor; display shows discrete 25bp outcomes (not weighted expected move). Weighted expected change is footnote-only. (FatTail RateWatch twist: Warsh Watch overlay)",
    "price_field": "last_trade",
    "product": "ZQ",
    "meetings": [
        {
            "statement_date": "2026-12-09",
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 0.2269,
            "p_hike": 0.7731,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.0711,
            "expected_change_bp": 19.33,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "bp": 25,
                    "label": "+25 bp hike",
                    "p": 0.7731
                },
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.2269
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.2269,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.7731,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.2269,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": null,
                "high": {
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "steps": 1,
                    "p": 0.7731,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 2
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQX6",
                "ZQZ6"
            ],
            "stale": false,
            "label": "next FOMC"
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-01-27",
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 0.7244,
            "p_hike": 0.2756,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.14,
            "expected_change_bp": 6.89,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.7244
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "bp": 25,
                    "label": "+25 bp hike",
                    "p": 0.2756
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.1644,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.6226,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.213,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.1644,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "steps": 1,
                    "p": 0.6226,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.213,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 3
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQG7",
                "ZQF7"
            ],
            "stale": false,
            "label": "meeting after"
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-03-17",
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 0.4451,
            "p_hike": 0.5549,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.2761,
            "expected_change_bp": 13.87,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "bp": 25,
                    "label": "+25 bp hike",
                    "p": 0.5549
                },
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.4451
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.0732,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.3683,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.4403,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 3,
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "p": 0.1182,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.0732,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.4403,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "steps": 3,
                    "p": 0.1182,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 4
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQG7",
                "ZQH7"
            ],
            "stale": false
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-04-28",
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 0.7643,
            "p_hike": 0.2357,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.335,
            "expected_change_bp": 5.89,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.7643
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "bp": 25,
                    "label": "+25 bp hike",
                    "p": 0.2357
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.0559,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.2988,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.4233,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 3,
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "p": 0.1941,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 4,
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "p": 0.0279,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.0559,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.4233,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "steps": 4,
                    "p": 0.0279,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 5
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQK7",
                "ZQJ7"
            ],
            "stale": false
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-06-09",
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 0.6881,
            "p_hike": 0.3119,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.4184,
            "expected_change_bp": 7.8,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.6881
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "bp": 25,
                    "label": "+25 bp hike",
                    "p": 0.3119
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.0385,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.223,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.3845,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 3,
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "p": 0.2656,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 4,
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "p": 0.0797,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 5,
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "p": 0.0087,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.0385,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.3845,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "steps": 4,
                    "p": 0.0797,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 5
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQK7",
                "ZQM7"
            ],
            "stale": false
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-07-28",
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 0.9336,
            "p_hike": 0.0664,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.435,
            "expected_change_bp": 1.66,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.9336
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "bp": 25,
                    "label": "+25 bp hike",
                    "p": 0.0664
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.0359,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.2108,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.3737,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 3,
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "p": 0.2735,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 4,
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "p": 0.0921,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 5,
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "p": 0.0134,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 6,
                    "range": "5.25-5.50",
                    "lower": 5.25,
                    "upper": 5.5,
                    "p": 0.0006,
                    "label": "5.25\u20135.50%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.0359,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.3737,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "steps": 5,
                    "p": 0.0134,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 6
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQQ7",
                "ZQN7"
            ],
            "stale": false
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-09-15",
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 0.8222,
            "p_hike": 0.1778,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.4722,
            "expected_change_bp": 4.44,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.8222
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "bp": 25,
                    "label": "+25 bp hike",
                    "p": 0.1778
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.0295,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.1797,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.3448,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 3,
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "p": 0.2913,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 4,
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "p": 0.1243,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 5,
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "p": 0.0274,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 6,
                    "range": "5.25-5.50",
                    "lower": 5.25,
                    "upper": 5.5,
                    "p": 0.0029,
                    "label": "5.25\u20135.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 7,
                    "range": "5.50-5.75",
                    "lower": 5.5,
                    "upper": 5.75,
                    "p": 0.0001,
                    "label": "5.50\u20135.75%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.0295,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.3448,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "steps": 5,
                    "p": 0.0274,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 6
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQQ7",
                "ZQU7"
            ],
            "stale": false
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-10-27",
            "p_cut": 0.0689,
            "p_hold": 0.9311,
            "p_hike": 0,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.455,
            "expected_change_bp": -1.72,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.9311
                },
                {
                    "steps": -1,
                    "bp": -25,
                    "label": "-25 bp cut",
                    "p": 0.0689
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": -1,
                    "range": "3.50-3.75",
                    "lower": 3.5,
                    "upper": 3.75,
                    "p": 0.002,
                    "label": "3.50\u20133.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.0399,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.1911,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.3411,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 3,
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "p": 0.2798,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 4,
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "p": 0.1176,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 5,
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "p": 0.0257,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 6,
                    "range": "5.25-5.50",
                    "lower": 5.25,
                    "upper": 5.5,
                    "p": 0.0027,
                    "label": "5.25\u20135.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 7,
                    "range": "5.50-5.75",
                    "lower": 5.5,
                    "upper": 5.75,
                    "p": 0.0001,
                    "label": "5.50\u20135.75%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.0399,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.3411,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "steps": 5,
                    "p": 0.0257,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 6
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQX7",
                "ZQV7"
            ],
            "stale": false
        },
        {
            "statement_date": "2027-12-08",
            "p_cut": 0.027,
            "p_hold": 0.973,
            "p_hike": 0,
            "implied_post_rate": 4.4483,
            "expected_change_bp": -0.67,
            "outcomes": [
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "bp": 0,
                    "label": "Hold",
                    "p": 0.973
                },
                {
                    "steps": -1,
                    "bp": -25,
                    "label": "-25 bp cut",
                    "p": 0.027
                }
            ],
            "distribution": [
                {
                    "steps": -2,
                    "range": "3.25-3.50",
                    "lower": 3.25,
                    "upper": 3.5,
                    "p": 0.0001,
                    "label": "3.25\u20133.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": -1,
                    "range": "3.50-3.75",
                    "lower": 3.5,
                    "upper": 3.75,
                    "p": 0.0031,
                    "label": "3.50\u20133.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 0,
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "p": 0.044,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 1,
                    "range": "4.00-4.25",
                    "lower": 4,
                    "upper": 4.25,
                    "p": 0.1951,
                    "label": "4.00\u20134.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 2,
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "p": 0.3394,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 3,
                    "range": "4.50-4.75",
                    "lower": 4.5,
                    "upper": 4.75,
                    "p": 0.2755,
                    "label": "4.50\u20134.75%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 4,
                    "range": "4.75-5.00",
                    "lower": 4.75,
                    "upper": 5,
                    "p": 0.1152,
                    "label": "4.75\u20135.00%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 5,
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "p": 0.0251,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 6,
                    "range": "5.25-5.50",
                    "lower": 5.25,
                    "upper": 5.5,
                    "p": 0.0026,
                    "label": "5.25\u20135.50%"
                },
                {
                    "steps": 7,
                    "range": "5.50-5.75",
                    "lower": 5.5,
                    "upper": 5.75,
                    "p": 0.0001,
                    "label": "5.50\u20135.75%"
                }
            ],
            "range": {
                "low": {
                    "range": "3.75-4.00",
                    "lower": 3.75,
                    "upper": 4,
                    "steps": 0,
                    "p": 0.044,
                    "label": "3.75\u20134.00%"
                },
                "mid": {
                    "range": "4.25-4.50",
                    "lower": 4.25,
                    "upper": 4.5,
                    "steps": 2,
                    "p": 0.3394,
                    "label": "4.25\u20134.50%"
                },
                "high": {
                    "range": "5.00-5.25",
                    "lower": 5,
                    "upper": 5.25,
                    "steps": 5,
                    "p": 0.0251,
                    "label": "5.00\u20135.25%"
                },
                "bucket_count": 6
            },
            "extra": [],
            "contracts": [
                "ZQX7",
                "ZQZ7"
            ],
            "stale": false
        }
    ],
    "decision_history": {
        "schema": "ratewatch.decision_history.v0",
        "status": "reserved",
        "note": "Reserved for a future differentiator: last ~1y of FOMC rate decisions alongside live odds and outer-meeting ranges. Empty until Coach defines it.",
        "decisions": []
    },
    "deltas": {
        "2026-12-09": {
            "prior_as_of_et": "2026-10-28 16:59:58 EDT",
            "delta_pts": {
                "p_cut": 0,
                "p_hold": 9.7,
                "p_hike": -9.7
            }
        },
        "2027-01-27": {
            "prior_as_of_et": "2026-10-28 16:59:58 EDT",
            "delta_pts": {
                "p_cut": 0,
                "p_hold": 9.2,
                "p_hike": -9.2
            }
        }
    },
    "delta_next": {
        "prior_as_of_et": "2026-10-28 16:59:58 EDT",
        "delta_pts": {
            "p_cut": 0,
            "p_hold": 9.7,
            "p_hike": -9.7
        }
    },
    "warsh_watch": {
        "flag": "DIVERGE",
        "baseline_p_hike_dec": 0.87,
        "diverge_threshold_pts": 8
    },
    "product_name": "RateWatch",
    "not_cme_fedwatch": true,
    "countdown": {
        "next_statement_date": "2026-12-09",
        "days_from_today": 41
    }
}
