RateWatch is the better FedWatch tool. Live Fed rate odds for every FOMC meeting, built from Massive ZQ fed funds futures data and refreshed every 30 minutes on weekdays. CME FedWatch is a trademark of CME Group; RateWatch is not affiliated with CME Group.

Download the RateWatch guide (PDF)

Live markets

Live odds

Tap a meeting. Read the discrete 25 bp outcome. The gauge updates from the latest push.

Past click to enlarge

Past decisions

Past year Upper Lower 3.50% 3.75% 4% 4.25% 4.50% −25 bp cut · Oct 29, 2025 · target 3.75–4.00% −25 bp cut · Dec 10, 2025 · target 3.50–3.75% Hold · Jan 28, 2026 · target 3.50–3.75% Hold · Mar 18, 2026 · target 3.50–3.75% Hold · Apr 29, 2026 · target 3.50–3.75% Hold · Jun 17, 2026 · target 3.50–3.75% Hold · Jul 29, 2026 · target 3.50–3.75% +25 bp hike · Sep 16, 2026 · target 3.75–4.00% Hold · Oct 28, 2026 · target 3.75–4.00% Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Oct
Past 5 years Upper Lower 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% +25 bp hike · Mar 16, 2022 · target 0.25–0.50% +50 bp hike · May 4, 2022 · target 0.75–1.00% +75 bp hike · Jun 15, 2022 · target 1.50–1.75% +75 bp hike · Jul 27, 2022 · target 2.25–2.50% +75 bp hike · Sep 21, 2022 · target 3.00–3.25% +75 bp hike · Nov 2, 2022 · target 3.75–4.00% +50 bp hike · Dec 14, 2022 · target 4.25–4.50% +25 bp hike · Feb 1, 2023 · target 4.50–4.75% +25 bp hike · Mar 22, 2023 · target 4.75–5.00% +25 bp hike · May 3, 2023 · target 5.00–5.25% +25 bp hike · Jul 26, 2023 · target 5.25–5.50% −50 bp cut · Sep 18, 2024 · target 4.75–5.00% −25 bp cut · Nov 7, 2024 · target 4.50–4.75% −25 bp cut · Dec 18, 2024 · target 4.25–4.50% −25 bp cut · Sep 17, 2025 · target 4.00–4.25% −25 bp cut · Oct 29, 2025 · target 3.75–4.00% −25 bp cut · Dec 10, 2025 · target 3.50–3.75% +25 bp hike · Sep 16, 2026 · target 3.75–4.00% 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

As of 2026-10-29 · Current target 3.75–4.00%. Source: FRED DFEDTARU/DFEDTARL · Federal Reserve FOMC dates. Static chart until wired into the RateWatch plugin. Warsh chair since May 22, 2026.

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RateWatch ⓘ
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What is RateWatch?
Future click to enlarge

Forward path from live RateWatch odds

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    Why it wins

    Why RateWatch is the better FedWatch tool

    • Real outcomes, not just bars. You see “+25 bp hike” and “Hold” as discrete 25 bp outcomes, with the weighted expected move in small print.
    • Every meeting, one tap away. Meeting buttons across the strip, not a single next-meeting view.
    • A gauge per meeting. Variant C puts the dominant outcome on a gauge with the runner-up inside it.
    • Free on FatTail, embeddable soon. Use it on the FOMC Alerts hub today; iframe embed ships with RateWatch.
    • Refreshed every 30 minutes on weekdays from real-time ZQ last trades via Massive, with an as-of timestamp on every figure.
    Context

    What RateWatch is

    This is the RateWatch campaign page — the better FedWatch tool, on FatTail. It sits next to the FOMC Alerts hub, where the same widget already runs as the category banner. More shareable widgets may get their own pages later; this page is RateWatch only.

    How it works

    Methodology

    • Source. 30-Day Fed Funds futures (ZQ) via Massive. On Coach’s Massive plan the ZQ last_trade snapshots are real-time. Funding-conditions series such as EFFR lag about one business day.
    • Implied rate. For each contract month, implied average effective federal funds rate = 100 − ZQ price.
    • 25 bp steps. Rate changes are modeled in 25 basis-point increments.
    • Non-meeting months. End of the prior month equals the average of a non-meeting month equals the start of the next.
    • Meeting months. Day-weighted average of the pre-meeting and post-meeting rates.
    • Meeting probabilities. A binary tree over the floor and ceil of expected steps produces P(cut), P(hold) and P(hike) for that meeting’s discrete 25 bp outcomes. Later meetings carry the cumulative path.
    • Display. The widget leads with those discrete outcomes (for example “+25 bp hike”). The weighted expected change in basis points appears in small print under the gauge.
    • Refresh and as-of. Odds are rebuilt from a fresh ZQ snapshot about every 30 minutes on weekdays and pushed to the site. Every figure carries its as_of Eastern Time. The on-page widget re-polls the published JSON about every five minutes.

    Primary reference: Understanding the CME Group FedWatch Tool Methodology (CME Group, 2023).

    Open it

    Open RateWatch

    RateWatch — the better FedWatch tool — also runs on the FOMC Alerts hub. Bookmark this page for the campaign home.

    More later

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    Free download: Economic Reports Tracker — the rotating five reports workbook, with live daily coaching updates when the set changes.

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    Embed RateWatch free — iframe, OBS, and Notion. More widgets later (light theme, desktop, extension) need a separate GO.

    This page is the RateWatch campaign landing page. If FatTail ships more shareable widgets, each one will get its own page. A general widget hub only appears if there are many.

    Optional: practice Fed energy on Observer (live daily coaching). Observer.

    Not financial advice. RateWatch is the better FedWatch tool, and it is not CME FedWatch. FedWatch is a trademark of CME Group; RateWatch is not affiliated with CME Group. Odds are market-implied from futures prices, not a forecast.