Latest from FatTail

1. Oct 24, 2026 0DTE Method

   How to Calculate Butterfly Max Loss Before Entry

   Learn how to calculate butterfly max loss for SPX options, account for contract multipliers and fills, and size defined-risk trades before entry correctly.

   

2. Oct 23, 2026

   The ‘Cheaper Oil Next Year’ Bet Just Got $5 Pricier

   Oil futures still price cheaper crude in 2027, just $5 less cheap than three weeks ago. What that, breakevens and December hike odds mean for rates.

   

3. Oct 23, 2026 Fed & FOMC

   Why Are Treasury Yields Falling? Thursday’s 16bp 2-Year Drop

   Treasury yields fell up to 17bp Thursday as AI stocks slid, but Fed odds barely moved. What the 2-year priced, and why it matters for 0DTE premium.

   

4. Oct 23, 2026 Rates & Treasuries

   Paychecks Up 1.5%, Prices Up 3.5%: Your Raise Lost to Inflation

   BLS: the typical full-time paycheck rose 1.5% in a year while prices rose 3.5%. What the real-pay squeeze means for spending, the Fed and 0DTE.

   

5. Oct 23, 2026 Fed & FOMC

   The Fed Hiked. Your Savings Account Didn’t Notice.

   The best 12-month CDs pay about 4.4%; the national average is 1.76%. What one Fed hike, T-bills and history say about where CD rates go from here.

   

6. Oct 22, 2026 0DTE Method

   How to Structure Butterfly Exits for SPX

   Learn how to structure butterfly exits in 0DTE SPX with defined risk, planned adjustments, and rules that keep a single trade from defining your trading day.

   

7. Oct 22, 2026 Fed & FOMC

   Fed Day, GDP, Big Tech, Election Day: One VIX Curve, Four Events

   One 30-day VIX window now holds the Fed, GDP, Big Tech earnings and Election Day. How to read the VIX curve's shape, and which part sees Fed day.

   

8. Oct 22, 2026 Fed & FOMC

   Q3 GDP 2026 and Core PCE Land the Day After the Fed Decides

   Q3 GDP and September core PCE print at 8:30 AM ET Oct 29, the morning after the Fed decides. Imports and inventories muddy the headline; core PCE m/m…

   

9. Oct 21, 2026 Rates & Treasuries

   The Fed Sets the Short End. Who Sets the 10-Year?

   The Fed sets the overnight rate, not the 10-year. Dalio's Treasury supply math, checked against official data, plus the Nov 2 and Nov 4 refunding dates.

   

10. Oct 21, 2026 Fed & FOMC

    13% or 16%? How to Read Fed Rate Odds Like You Wrote the Math

    Fed rate odds are futures prices with fine print. How CME FedWatch turns them into probabilities, why Kalshi differs on December, and what one tick means.

    

11. Oct 21, 2026 Fed & FOMC

    Fed Rate Lower, Mortgages Higher: The 10-Year Sets Housing

    The Fed's upper bound is 25bp below a year ago, but the 30-year mortgage is 113bp higher. Mortgages follow the 10-year; that's the Oct 28 variable to watch.

    

12. Oct 20, 2026 0DTE Method

    How to Use Trade Review for Better SPX Decisions

    Learn how to use trade review to evaluate 0DTE SPX decisions, refine risk, and build a repeatable process without chasing predictions or alerts daily.