Inflation ‘Solved’? CPI Still 3.7% on Election Day

FOMC Alerts · November 3, 2026

On midterm Election Day, President Trump said on Fox & Friends that “inflation is solved.” The last official CPI print still shows consumer prices up 3.7% year over year in September, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics as reported by the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Newsweek. Our FatTail RateWatch Tool (CME fed funds futures) reads an 80.8% chance of a December 9 Fed hike as of 4:38 PM ET Tue Nov 3. This note maps the claim against the data and the Dec path — it makes no call on election winners. Desk coverage: FOMC Alerts hub.

The claim vs the last CPI print

The Wall Street Journal’s midterm live card (Tue Nov 3) attributes the line to Trump’s Fox & Friends interview: “inflation is solved.” The same card notes that consumer prices were up 3.7% in September versus a year earlier, according to the Labor Department, with high energy prices tightening the squeeze on consumers.

Newsweek independently reports the same Fox & Friends quote — “Inflation is solved. Everything is great…” — and ties the September CPI figure to BLS. Fox Business, in its Election Day affordability piece, likewise cites September CPI at 3.7% year over year, well above the Fed’s 2% target, with gasoline +9.1% month over month and +34.2% year over year in that report’s BLS-linked read.

We treat 3.7% as the last official headline CPI stamp shared across those outlets. We do not invent a newer CPI print that has not been released.

What voters are telling pollsters (labeled third-party)

Newsweek cites the October CNBC All-America Economic Survey: 34% of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy (down from 38% in July), while 65% disapproved — described there as an all-time low in that poll’s series. Newsweek also cites an NBC News Decision Desk poll (October) showing 27% approval on cost of living. Those are labeled poll figures, not BLS data.

Fox Business cites a Fox News survey (Oct 9–12): six in 10 voters named cost of living as their top economic concern; 74% rated the economy negatively; 53% expected it to worsen next year; only 18% said their family was better off than two years ago.

The Wall Street Journal notes that a recent WSJ poll has Democrats ahead by 3 points on who handles the economy better, versus a 12-point Republican edge in July 2025. We report the poll shift as published; we do not convert it into a seat call.

Oil, gold, and the inflation narrative on the tape

CNBC (via Reuters reporting on the same story) said spot gold slipped about 1.1% to $3,904.69 on Tuesday as oil rose more than $1 on Iran-war supply concerns, with WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah arguing that higher oil lifts inflation pressures and rate expectations — a headwind for gold. That CNBC piece also cited CME FedWatch at about a 75% December hike chance at the time of that wrap. Our board below uses FatTail RateWatch, not that earlier FedWatch stamp.

Bloomberg carried a video headline that PGIM’s Neiss says midterm gridlock raises inflation risks. We only have the title/snippet (page blocked in intake), so we label it as a single-strategist video view — not a data print.

RateWatch into Dec 8–9

FatTail RateWatch Tool (CME fed funds futures): December 9 hike 80.8% / hold 19.2% as of 4:38 PM ET Tue Nov 3. Current target range on the board: 3.75–4.00%. Live board: RateWatch. This article, the card, and the companion X post use this single stamped reading (MATCH).

Context, not a prediction: the Fed hiked +25 bp to 3.75–4.00% on Sep 16, then held Oct 28 (10–2) per the Fed’s Oct 28 statement. Map the inflation claim and the last CPI stamp against live odds — do not call the Dec vote, and do not call tonight’s winners.

What it means for 0DTE

• Energy: Election-night headlines can move rates and ES through the inflation / fiscal path narrative. The hard data still on the board is September CPI at 3.7% and live Dec odds — not a same-day CPI reprint.
• Premium: Let VIX price residual event risk into the close and overnight; do not invent a typical election-night SPX range from this note.
• Structure: Defined risk only; know max loss before entry; size for a gap if overnight politics reprices Dec odds.
• Plan, don’t predict: Write two scenarios before you size — (1) the “solved” narrative holds and Dec hike odds ease, (2) affordability / energy headlines keep Dec hike odds supported. Track the board on RateWatch.

Related reading: JOLTS September 2026 · El Niño inflation risk 2027 · December Fed rate hike odds Nov 2 · Week Ahead Nov 2–6 · FOMC meeting schedule 2026

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