October 2026 PPI Rises 0.3% After a Revised 1.4% Jump

The official October 2026 PPI print is in. The Bureau of Labor Statistics, in USDL-26-1687, reported that final-demand producer prices rose 0.3% in October after seasonal adjustment, following a September increase that was revised to 1.4% from the first-published 1.3%. On a 12-month basis, not seasonally adjusted, final demand was up 6.5% — the largest such increase since 7.4% in November 2022.

The 0.3% monthly print is 0.1 percentage point below the XTB third-party forecast of 0.4% month over month and 6.6% year over year, as compiled ahead of this morning’s 8:30 AM ET release. That comparison is a forecast check, not a claim about how markets should trade the number.

October 2026 PPI: headline +0.3%, official BLS core still +0.5%

Final-demand goods rose 0.5% in October. Foods increased 1.3%, energy fell 0.1%, and goods less foods and energy rose 0.5%. Those last two cuts are easy to swap, so keep them straight: energy is the 0.1% decline; the goods-less-foods-and-energy cut is the 0.5% increase. On a 12-month basis, final-demand goods were up 10.2%, the largest such increase since 10.5% in October 2022.

Final-demand services rose 0.2%, a fifth consecutive monthly increase. Trade services declined 0.2%. Transportation and warehousing services rose 2.0%. Other services rose 0.2%. Truck transportation of freight increased 3.9%. Diesel fuel fell 7.9%. Jet fuel, not seasonally adjusted, rose 7.0%. Machinery and vehicle wholesaling dropped 4.2% and accounted for more than 80% of the decline in trade services, according to the official release.

How to read the two “core” cuts

Do not treat “PPI less foods and energy” as official BLS core. Official BLS core is final demand less foods, energy, and trade services. That cut rose 0.5% in October and was up 4.9% over the 12 months ended in October — the same monthly pace as the already-revised September core of 0.5%.

The less-foods-and-energy cut, which still includes trade services, rose 0.3% in October and was up 5.0% over the 12 months (Table 1, series FD 49104 in the official file). XTB’s third-party “core” forecast of 0.3% month over month and 5.0% year over year matches that cut, not official BLS core. September’s revised less-foods-and-energy figure is 0.8%, not the 0.7% that appeared in some early writeups. The revised September official BLS core remains 0.5%.

What still feeds core PCE — and what no longer does

Airline passenger services fell 1.2% in October but were up 15.0% over the 12 months. Portfolio management increased 0.7% (not seasonally adjusted) and was up 18.5% year over year. After the 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis annual update, portfolio management no longer feeds the core PCE deflator, so do not treat that 18.5% reading as an input into core PCE.

This is the last scheduled PPI release before the Dec. 8–9 FOMC meeting. The November PPI is scheduled for Dec. 15, after the decision. The October PCE report is still on the calendar for Nov. 25, so this print is not the last inflation release the Committee can see before December.

RateWatch, as of 1:46 PM ET

As of 1:46 PM ET on Nov. 13, 2026, RateWatch — our ZQ futures method, never CME FedWatch — prices the Dec. 9 meeting as a 100% hike and a 0% hold, with +25 bp at 89.4% and +50 bp at 10.6%. The same stamp prices the Jan. 27 meeting at 68.9% hike / 31.1% hold, and the March 17 meeting at 65.0% hike / 35.0% hold. The current target range is 3.75–4.00%. That is a single snapshot, not a path, and not a claim that this morning’s PPI print moved those odds.

What it means for 0DTE

Energy: The last scheduled PPI is now on the tape ahead of the Dec. 8–9 meeting, with a 50 bp hike still priced as a minority outcome on the 1:46 PM ET RateWatch stamp. Keep official headline +0.3% and official BLS core +0.5% next to that single level. Do not collapse the two “core” cuts into one number.

Premium: Thursday’s official close, Nov. 12, was S&P 500 7,592.40, VIX 18.70, and VIX1D 15.99, from Massive’s daily aggregates. Use that settled close as the last official reference until Friday’s official close is in. Do not treat an intraday print as the close.

Structure: Defined-risk structures only. A same-day official print is not a reason to improvise size or to turn a forecast miss into a directional bet.

Plan: Keep three facts on the pad: the official +0.3% monthly headline and +6.5% 12-month rate, the official BLS core still at +0.5%, and the single RateWatch stamp as of 1:46 PM ET Nov. 13. For a walkthrough of how we map a data print onto a defined-risk plan, see how to plan 0DTE market scenarios.

Related reading

• October CPI 2026
• Economic reports tracker
• RateWatch
• December Fed meeting 2026
• FOMC meeting schedule 2026