December Fed Meeting 2026: Odds, SEP Day and the Data Path

FOMC Alerts · October 29, 2026 · Updated Oct 29, 2026, 1:05 PM ET

The Fed meeting December 2026 is December 8–9: the last scheduled FOMC of the year, an SEP meeting with a new Summary of Economic Projections and a new dot plot, and there is no November meeting in between. On October 28 the Committee held the federal funds target range at 3.75%–4.00% by a 10–2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring to raise the target range by 1/4 percentage point at that meeting. That was Warsh’s fourth meeting as Chair, not his first. What follows is the post-October setup for December: the statement wording that changed, the December hike odds with true as-of times, the data calendar between now and Dec 9, the SEP-day base rates, and the Bias Board accountability lines that December will test.

When is the December Fed meeting 2026?

Dec 8–9, 2026. The statement posts Wednesday, Dec 9 at 2:00 PM ET; Chair Warsh’s press conference starts at 2:30 PM ET; new projections and a new dot plot go out with the statement. That is the last scheduled FOMC of 2026. There is no November meeting. Minutes of the Oct 27–28 meeting are due Wednesday, Nov 18 at 2:00 PM ET; the Beige Book is due Wednesday, Nov 25 at 2:00 PM ET. The December blackout, on our reading of the FOMC external-communications policy, runs Saturday, Nov 28 through Thursday, Dec 10. Every remaining date is on our FOMC meeting schedule 2026.

Is there an FOMC meeting in November 2026?

No. The Federal Reserve’s published 2026 calendar has no November FOMC meeting. After Oct 27–28, the next scheduled session is the Fed meeting December 2026 on Dec 8–9. Remaining dates live on the FOMC meeting schedule 2026.

What did the October 28 decision change for December?

The hold at 3.75%–4.00% kept December a live hike meeting. The vote was 10–2. Cook and Hammack preferred a quarter-point hike; that is in the statement’s voting paragraph. The statement also dropped September’s line that “with this adjustment, the Committee judges that it has eased the way toward a more sustainable policy stance” and wrote, instead, that “the accumulation of more information will help guide the Committee in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy.” That keeps the next move data-conditional. The full recap is in our Fed decision October 28, 2026 post; Warsh’s press-conference answers are in the Warsh press conference piece. He did not put a date on the next move.

“However, the accumulation of more information will help guide the Committee in determining the appropriate stance of monetary policy.”

FOMC statement, October 28, 2026

December Fed meeting odds after the October decision

Every desk figure below is our calculation from fed funds futures using CME’s method (Yahoo delayed CBOT quotes), with true as-of times. RateWatch is a separately labeled REAL-TIME read — never blend the two runs into one number.

Going into the October meeting, Monday’s baseline had a December-meeting hike (conditional on an October hold) at 78.9% (7:13 AM ET Oct 26 quotes). After the hold:

• ~2:00–2:05 PM ET Wednesday: December hike 87.4% (desk CME-method).
• Wednesday evening (~7:45–9:24 PM ET): December hike 84.5% (desk CME-method).

The early post-print desk read was 84.5% as of 8:32 AM ET — same level as Wednesday evening, below the Wednesday afternoon 87.4%. RateWatch’s separate post-data stamp was 88.0% at 8:37:28 AM ET, then swung to 74.2% at 9:46 AM ET, 81.1% as of 12:10:02 PM ET, and 73.2% as of 12:37:24 PM ET (hold 26.8%; Jan hike 36.7%). The path after the print matters more than any single stamp. Method and caveats: how we calculate Fed odds. Live widget: RateWatch.

What Thursday’s GDP and PCE showed

Thursday, Oct 29, 8:30 AM ET, BEA released the Q3 GDP advance estimate and September Personal Income and Outlays (including PCE prices). That was the first major print the Committee did not have at the October meeting, and the first test of the “accumulation of more information” line.

Forecast rows carry their source. Regions “median” is their survey median; BofA figures are secondhand via TheStreet. No Bloomberg/Reuters consensus is cited. Full nowcast comparison: Q3 GDP 2026 preview.

Q3 real GDP rose 3.4% annualized (advance), above the Regions survey median 3.2% and below BofA’s 3.5% (via TheStreet). The GDP implicit price deflator was 2.2% SAAR (Q2 6.1%), softer than the Regions median 3.5%; Q3 PCE prices were 2.1% and core 2.5%. September PCE printed +0.5% m/m and 3.6% y/y; core +0.3% m/m and 3.1% y/y (in line with BofA on core). Personal income +0.2%, spending +0.5%, real disposable income −0.3%, saving rate 3.8%. Sources: BEA GDP advance Q3 2026; BEA Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026.

Every data release left before Dec 9

Two Employment Situations, one CPI that lands before the meeting, two PCE prints, the minutes and the Beige Book. November CPI is not an input to Dec 9.

SEP-day base rates: what Dec 9’s window has looked like

December is an SEP meeting. Our calculation from scheduled FOMC days since 2015 (patterns.md, main window through Oct 27, 2026):

• Median SPX intraday range on SEP days: 1.20% (n=46) vs 0.99% on non-SEP days (n=47).
• Median range on hike days: 1.68% (n=21); on hold days: 1.09% (n=63).
• VIX closed lower on 58.7% of SEP days vs 51.1% of non-SEP days (close-to-close; that misses any intraday crush).

Separately, on our FOMC expected move vs actual series (Feb 2023–Oct 2026, n=29), FOMC days closed beyond 1× the expected move 41.4% of the time vs 24.1% on other days. A December hike-vs-hold setup plus new dots is the kind of day where the expected move has most often been too small. That is a base rate, not a forecast. Structure the 2:00 / 2:30 PM ET window; do not call the direction. See also the FOMC-day 0DTE SPX playbook and expected move options.

Bias Board accountability: who December tests

December is the next scored vote for the voters who left a public line after October. Our full table is on the Fed Bias Board; the post-decision review is in Lisa Cook’s October dissent coverage and the Bias Board decision review. The testable lines, in one sentence each:

• Lisa D. Cook — Dissented Oct 28 for a +25 bp hike (Axios reports it as her first dissent as a Fed official). December tests whether she holds that preference once she can speak after the blackout and at the next vote.
• Beth M. Hammack — Dissented Oct 28 for a +25 bp hike, her second hike dissent of 2026 after July. December tests whether the Cleveland president keeps pressing for another quarter point.
• Lorie K. Logan — On Oct 1 said she currently estimates the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more and that policy needs to become restrictive; she named no meeting, then voted to hold on Oct 28. December is the open checkpoint on that 50 bp line.
• Neel Kashkari — A July hike dissenter who did not dissent on Oct 28. His latest remark in our corpus (Jul 31) preferred tightening incrementally as data arrive; December tests whether that hold was a pause or a change.
• John C. Williams — On Sep 29 (as prepared) said there is no need for urgency and that, if the economy evolves broadly with his forecast, “one further upward adjustment of the federal funds target range may be appropriate late this year.” December is the meeting that line points at.

Those are accountability lines against each official’s own words and votes. They are not a call on what December does.

What this means for SPX and 0DTE premium

• Energy: Thursday’s 8:30 AM GDP and PCE were a data morning on top of a spent FOMC day — the gap is done. December’s SEP window has carried a wider median range than non-SEP days; size the Dec 9 event, don’t predict the print.
• Premium: VIX sets the regime. The 8:30 re-check is done; re-check again into Dec 9. Link the live number to the SPX expected move, not to a direction call.
• Structure: Defined-risk width follows the VIX regime (ZombieLand under 17 → 20–30 SPX points; Goldilocks bands above that). Max loss known before entry.
• Plan, don’t predict: Write two scripts for Dec 9 — hike-priced and hold-priced — and let the dots and the statement pick which one is live. Capital preservation first. Planning market scenarios for 0DTE SPX.

Related reading: Fed decision October 28, 2026 · Warsh press conference October 2026 · FOMC meeting schedule 2026 · Fed Bias Board · FOMC Alerts hub

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