The Fed Hiked. Your Savings Account Didn’t Notice.

FOMC Alerts · October 23, 2026

Will CD rates go up?

Will CD rates go up? At the top of the market, they already have. The best 12-month CD in CD Valet’s data paid 4.44% APY as of Oct 19. CD Valet is a CD marketplace paid by banks, so it has a stake in savers shopping for CDs; read its numbers as a vendor’s. The FDIC’s national average for the same term is 1.76%. That 2.7-point gap matters more to a saver than anything the Fed does on Oct 28.

The Fed has raised rates once this year. On Sep 16 the FOMC “decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-3/4 to 4 percent,” on a 12-0 vote (Federal Reserve). It was the first hike since July 2023, and markets price a better-than-even chance of a second one in December. Below: who actually got paid, how much past hikes reached savers, and how CDs compare with 3.7% inflation and Treasury bills. It’s structure, not a rate forecast.

The top of the CD market moved fast

CD Valet’s snapshot for Oct 19 (PR Newswire) is a vendor release built from the company’s own marketplace data, which we can’t check independently. With that flag:

• 91% of changes to existing CD rates were increases, up from 84.1% on Sep 21.
• CDs paying at least 4.00% APY rose from 3,780 to 7,025 in about four weeks: +86%.
• Top APYs over the past 30 days: 24-month up 20bp to 4.45%, 12-month up 19bp to 4.44%, 6-month up 8bp to 4.32%.
• The median across the 39,462 CDs it tracks was 3.35% (6-month 3.51%, 24-month 3.10%).

The best rates are the ones listed at the top of a marketplace, not what most savers hold. A one-off promotional CD at 9% sits in the same data; it’s an outlier, so we leave it out.

The national average 12-month CD (FDIC): 1.76% and creeping

The FDIC’s national rates are deposit-weighted averages across insured banks and credit unions, so the institutions holding the most deposits count the most (FDIC via FRED). October’s readings:

• Savings: 0.38% (0.37% in September)
• Money market: 0.63%
• 6-month CD: 1.39%
• 12-month CD: 1.76%
• 24-month CD: 1.55%
• 60-month CD: 1.41%

The FDIC national average 12-month CD rose 3bp from September to October, to 1.76% from 1.73%. Most of this year’s rise came before the Fed moved: it was 1.53% in April, while the 1-year Treasury yield climbed on rising odds of a hike. The FDIC national average savings rate has barely moved at all.

Why the biggest banks lag is standard context rather than something this data measures: a bank flush with deposits has less reason to compete on rate. Because the FDIC national averages are deposit-weighted, a small number of large, low-paying banks can hold it down while thousands of smaller ones raise.

What past hikes reached savers: about 30%

From March 2022 to July 2023 the Fed raised its upper bound from 0.25% to 5.50%, 525bp over 11 hikes. Over the same stretch the FDIC national average 12-month CD went from 0.15% to 1.72%. That’s 157bp, or about 30% of the Fed’s move. It kept climbing after the Fed stopped and peaked at 1.88% in September 2024, 14 months after the last hike. The FDIC national average savings rate went from 0.06% to 0.42%. The 1-year Treasury, by contrast, peaked at 5.49% on Sep 27, 2023.

The 2015-18 hikes added 225bp. The FDIC national average 12-month CD went from 0.21% to 0.61% by December 2018 and peaked at 0.67% in May 2019. That’s an older FDIC series, so its levels aren’t comparable with today’s, but the shape is the same: slow, partial and late.

One hike is not a cycle. For how far past cycles ran, see our Fed rate hike history.

CD rates vs inflation: the real math

Take September’s 3.7% CPI (BLS) and subtract it from each yield. This is simple and pre-tax (our calc):

• Top 24-mo CD, 4.45%: +0.75
• Top 12-mo CD, 4.44%: +0.74
• Top 6-mo CD, 4.32%: +0.62
• Median CD (CD Valet, all terms), 3.35%: -0.35
• Median 24-mo CD (CD Valet), 3.10%: -0.60
• National avg 12-mo CD (FDIC), 1.76%: -1.94
• National avg money market (FDIC), 0.63%: -3.07
• Avg savings account (FDIC), 0.38%: -3.32

So the answer to “do CD rates beat inflation?” depends on which CD. The best ones do: the top 12-mo CD, by about three-quarters of a point (+0.74). The median CD in CD Valet’s data doesn’t (-0.35), the national avg 12-mo CD (FDIC) is at -1.94, and the avg savings account (FDIC) loses more than 3 points a year in purchasing power at this inflation rate (-3.32). Three caveats: CPI is backward-looking, not a forecast; taxes aren’t included; and a 24-month CD locks the rate, not the inflation rate.

CD vs Treasury bill

At the Oct 22 close the Treasury’s par yield curve had the 3-month bill at 4.22%, the 6-month at 4.29%, the 1-year at 4.41% and the 2-year note at 4.65% (Treasury). Against 3.7% inflation that’s +0.59 for the 6-month and +0.71 for the 1-year, roughly where the best CDs sit (6-month 4.32%, 12-month 4.44%). The national avg 12-mo CD (FDIC), at 1.76%, isn’t close.

Bills moved first. On Sep 15, the day before the hike, the 6-month yielded 4.17% and the 1-year 4.39%. Short Treasury yields move on expectations, before the Fed acts, and the most competitive CD rates follow them. If you want to know where top CD rates are heading, the T-bill is the better gauge than the Fed’s next headline. One caution on small gaps: CD APYs and Treasury bond-equivalent yields use different conventions, so a few basis points either way isn’t a real difference.

Will CD rates go up if the Fed raises rates again?

As of about 8:45 AM ET on Oct 23, our CME-method calculation from fed funds futures put the chance of an Oct 28 hike at about 10%. For December, it put the chance that the target range sits above today’s 3.75-4.00% after the Dec 8-9 meeting at 81%. That figure is cumulative, October included. On the prediction markets, Kalshi’s December +25bp contract traded at 71-72 cents (Kalshi) and Polymarket’s at 72-73 cents (Polymarket).

That matters for CDs because a hike the market expects is already in T-bill yields, and so already in the best CD rates. What moves them from here is news that changes the odds, in either direction. Oct 22 showed the other direction: fears about the AI boom sent investors into Treasuries, and the 2-year yield fell 10.7bp to 4.716% (Reuters via The Globe and Mail). For how those odds are built, see how to read fed funds futures probability.

For the Oct 28 meeting itself, economists in Reuters’ poll expected a skip in October and a hike in December: the October FOMC hike odds.

Should I buy a CD now or wait?

We don’t make that call, but the trade-off is mechanical:

• Locking now: you keep today’s top rate if short yields fall, as they did on Oct 22. You give up any rise beyond what’s already priced.
• Waiting: a bet that yields rise more than markets already expect. A December hike that arrives exactly as priced is mostly in today’s rates.
• Staying put at the national average: on the numbers above, the avg savings account (FDIC), at 0.38%, is the costliest choice in the data, at -3.32 after inflation.

Terms and early-withdrawal penalties differ from bank to bank, so compare those alongside the APY.

What to watch

• Wed Oct 28, 2:00 PM ET: FOMC statement; press conference at 2:30 PM ET.
• Thu Oct 29, 8:30 AM ET: GDP and PCE inflation.
• Tue Nov 10, 8:30 AM ET: October CPI.
• Mon Nov 16: the next FDIC national rates update, the release date FRED lists.
• Dec 8-9: the FOMC meeting the December odds refer to.

What it means for 0DTE

• Event risk: For SPX, the scheduled event is the Fed at 2:00 PM ET Wednesday, then Thursday’s 8:30 AM data, which lands before the open and shows up as a gap rather than a mid-session move.
• Premium: The VIX is calculated from SPX option prices. Check it before each date instead of assuming the event is or isn’t priced.
• Structure: Keep risk defined and size for the 2:00 PM ET statement and the 2:30 PM ET press conference as separate moments.
• Plan, don’t predict: Plan for a hold and for a hike on Oct 28, and for the December wording either way. Neither is a call.

Related reading

• FOMC Alerts hub: the Fed calendar and all our coverage in one place.
• All FOMC Alerts posts: the full series, newest first.

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