Warsh Press Conference: December, Dissents and the VIX

FOMC Alerts · October 28, 2026 · 7:30 PM ET

The Warsh press conference on October 28 followed a hold, the futures-implied base case, at 3.75%–4.00%, approved 10–2. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring to raise the target range by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting. In his opening statement Warsh said growth has strengthened but inflation is still too high, and he announced that one 2027 meeting will be set aside for monetary policy strategy, with no rate vote or policy statement expected.

“We believe eight meetings per year is the right number for the FOMC. But in 2027, one meeting will focus exclusively on broad monetary policy strategy, with neither a vote on the federal funds rate nor a policy statement anticipated.”

Kevin Warsh, October 28 press conference, opening statement (Fed preliminary transcript)

Below: what he said about December, the dissents and inflation, then what VIX and VIX1D did around the 2:00 PM ET statement and what the base rates say about Thursday’s session.

What did Warsh say about December at the press conference?

He gave no signal on the next move. In the Q&A he repeated that he doesn’t do forward guidance outside a crisis, as quoted by CNBC, and his prepared remarks said the Committee has made clear its readiness to act as circumstances require, with this week’s discussion focused mainly on the price stability side of the mandate.

“We’ve made clear our readiness to act as circumstances require, and we have shown our willingness to act.”

Kevin Warsh, October 28 press conference, opening statement (Fed preliminary transcript)

That keeps the guidance data-conditional: no date and no preset path, in line with the statement’s new line that more information will help the Committee set the policy stance. Asked why the Committee didn’t hike today, he acknowledged that price stability has not been achieved but did not say directly why it waited, according to the New York Times live blog.

That fits his record. At the September 16 press conference he pushed back on forward guidance and said single data points don’t drive policy, so his answers about the next meeting tend to come as conditions, not dates. Going in, our calculation from fed funds futures using CME’s method had a December hike at 78.9% if October held (Monday 7:13 AM ET quotes). The post-decision December number and the data calendar to Dec 9 follow in Thursday’s December Fed meeting piece; the pre-meeting setup is in October hike odds.

What did Warsh say about the dissents?

Warsh’s opening statement did not address the two dissents from Cook and Hammack, who preferred a quarter-point hike, and CNBC and New York Times live-blog coverage of the Q&A reported no remark from him on them. He did describe the policymakers he works with as unambiguous in their commitment to stable prices.

In July he described a split committee as a family fight he had asked for, and left dissenters to explain their own votes (Jul 29 transcript, paraphrased). Under the Fed’s communications policy the blackout for this meeting runs through Thursday, Oct 29 (our reading of the rule), so Friday is the earliest any dissenter can explain a vote in public.

What did Warsh say about inflation and energy prices?

Warsh said inflation has run above the Committee’s objective for close to six years and that energy and related prices have moved higher again in recent weeks. The job, he said, is to keep those relative price changes from broadening out across the economy and to keep inflation expectations anchored.

“I don’t believe in forward guidance, absent exigent circumstances, absent a crisis.”

Kevin Warsh, October 28 press conference, Q&A, as quoted by CNBC

The first test of those answers comes quickly: Q3 GDP (advance estimate) and September personal income and outlays, including PCE prices, are out Thursday at 8:30 AM ET (BEA schedule).

What did VIX and VIX1D do around the Fed press conference?

Wednesday reads are delayed Yahoo Finance quotes taken at the times shown; Tuesday is Cboe’s official close.

From the 2:01 PM read to 3:55 PM, VIX moved −0.33 points and VIX1D −0.76; SPX moved +0.15%. Against Tuesday’s Cboe close, VIX is −0.55 points.

That is a fade after the event: the statement and the press conference are done, so short-dated options stop paying for them. The base rates below measure something stricter, VIX’s close against its own open, and Cboe’s official numbers tonight settle whether today counts.

Does the vol crush come the same day? What the base rates say

The idea that implied vol collapses as soon as the press conference ends is common. The record is weaker than that. Our calculation, using Cboe’s daily VIX data and every scheduled FOMC decision day from January 2015 to Oct 23, 2026:

• VIX closed below its open on 54.8% of 93 FOMC days, versus 61.9% of all other days. The intraday fade has been less common on Fed days, not more.
• Meetings without new projections, like October’s: 48.9% (n=47). With projections: 60.9% (n=46).
• Hold days, today’s comparison set: 55.6% (n=63).
• All six 2026 FOMC days closed above the open: Jan +0.26, Mar +3.58, Apr +0.98, Jun +2.36, Jul +2.39, Sep +0.80 points.

The next day has been the better-behaved window. Since April 2023 (Cboe data, our calculation), VIX1D fell from the FOMC-day close to the next day’s close 60.7% of the time (n=28, median −0.97 points), versus 53.0% on other days (median −0.16). Five of the six 2026 meetings fit; January was the exception.

Source: Cboe VIX1D daily history; our calculation.

So the crush, when it comes, has more often been a next-day event than a 2:30 PM one. Thursday is not a clean test, though: GDP and PCE land at 8:30 AM ET, before the cash open, and data can reprice one-day vol on its own. Read the base rate as a reference point, not a forecast. The close-to-close version of the 2026 record is in our VIX term structure explainer, and the mechanics of why implied vol drops after an event are in IV crush in options.

What does the Warsh press conference mean for Thursday’s 0DTE session?

• Energy: The Fed is an energy input, not a direction. The statement and the press conference are spent; Thursday’s 8:30 AM GDP and PCE are the next input, and they can gap the open on data the committee hadn’t seen.
• Premium: VIX drives premium. At 3:55 PM ET VIX read 16.97, which is ZombieLand. Check it again after 8:30 Thursday; the regime at the open is the one to size for, along with the SPX expected move.
• Structure: In ZombieLand the reference SPX/ES butterfly width is 20–30 points, with the debit at 5–10% of width. The bands: ZombieLand (VIX under 17) 20–30; Goldilocks 1 (17–24.5) 30–40; Goldilocks 2 (24.5–32) 40–50; Chaos (above 32) 50+. Defined risk, max loss known before entry.
• Plan, don’t predict: Write two scripts, not one call. Data near forecasts and VIX1D coming in: premium shrinks and widths follow the regime down. A surprise in GDP or core PCE: treat Thursday as a second event day and cut size. Capital preservation comes first. Our guide to planning market scenarios for 0DTE SPX lays out the if-then setup.

When is the Warsh press conference transcript posted?

The Fed posts each press conference transcript as a PDF on its FOMC calendar page; October’s follows the pattern FOMCpresconf20261028.pdf. We haven’t verified what time it goes up, so this summary is based on the Fed’s preliminary transcript of Warsh’s opening statement (Q&A lines as quoted by CNBC). For scale, the September 16 transcript ran 15 pages and 4,627 words, and July’s ran 21 pages and 7,009 words (our word count).

What comes after the October press conference?

Warsh’s fourth meeting as Chair since May 22, 2026 is done. The next FOMC meeting is Dec 8-9, with new projections and a dot plot: statement at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, Dec 9, press conference at 2:30. Fed speakers can talk in public again from Friday, Oct 30. Every remaining date is in our FOMC meeting schedule 2026. The statement itself, and what changed in it, is in our Fed decision recap.

Related reading: Fed meeting this week · IV crush options · FOMC Alerts hub · All FOMC Alerts

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