Williams Thursday Panel: Wire-Only Remarks, 2-Year Jump

The Fed Williams more rate hikes question is being framed by the wires after a Thursday evening panel, and there is still no New York Fed text. FOMC Vice Chair John C. Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a permanent voter, appeared at a UC Berkeley Alumni Salon in New York on the evening of Nov. 12. It was a moderated panel, not a prepared speech. As of Thursday night, the Bank’s speeches index still listed his Sept. 29 remarks as the latest Williams posting. There is no official transcript of the salon.

Reuters, in a Nov. 12 dispatch by Michael S. Derby, paraphrased him as saying that more interest rate increases are likely. That is the outlet’s paraphrase, not a sentence to put in his mouth, and Reuters reported that he did not say when he expects the next increase or how far the Committee will go. Williams voted with the 10-2 majority on Oct. 28 to hold the target range at 3.75–4.00%.

Fed Williams more rate hikes: what the wires quoted, and what they didn’t

Two lines are being circulated as quotes. Both are wire-only; neither has been matched to a New York Fed text. According to Reuters, Williams said, “The economy is strong, labor market continues to strengthen, and inflation is persistent.” And, with Reuters’ ellipsis preserved: “We still have work to do … to get monetary policy to the right place.”

A Reuters headline already on the KELO reprint on Nov. 12 recast the same remarks as the central bank having “work to do” to get inflation back on target. That headline wording is not the Thursday pull quote. The Reuters.com page, dated Nov. 13, did not load from this desk (HTTP 401), so the headline is treated here as a wire snippet, not a primary transcript. A Bloomberg headline used different wording, including “far too high,” which does not appear in the Reuters quotes above and is not used as a pull quote here.

The 2-year backup came first — and the rankings are not the official par

The Treasury backup was already on the tape before the evening panel, so do not read the move as a reaction to Williams. Official Treasury par, for Nov. 12, shows the 2-year at 4.86%, the 10-year at 5.10%, and the 30-year at 5.43%. From the Nov. 9 official row through Nov. 12, that is a two-session rise of 30 basis points in the 2-year, 22 basis points in the 10-year, and 17 basis points in the 30-year.

WSJ/Tradeweb’s same-day market figures are a separate tape: a 10-year settle of 5.102%, a two-session rise of 23.9 basis points in the 10-year and 31.8 basis points in the 2-year, with the 2-year’s two-day jump ranked as the largest since March 2023. Those rankings and increments are WSJ/Tradeweb’s, not official Treasury par. Official par’s two-session +30 basis points in the 2-year is tied with the Oct. 2–4, 2024 rise, so the official series does not uniquely support a “largest since March 2023” claim. Keep the two sources apart.

RateWatch, as of 4:07 PM ET

As of 4:07 PM ET on Nov. 13, 2026, RateWatch — our ZQ futures method, never CME FedWatch — prices the Dec. 9 meeting as a 100% hike and a 0% hold, with +25 bp at 93.9% and +50 bp at 6.1%. The same stamp prices the Jan. 27 meeting at 71.2% hike / 28.8% hold, and the March 17 meeting at 66.7% hike / 33.3% hold. The current target range is 3.75–4.00%. That is a single snapshot, not a path, and not a claim that Thursday’s panel, Friday’s PPI print, or Friday’s other speakers moved those odds.

What it means for 0DTE

Energy: The Committee’s vice chair was paraphrased by Reuters as leaning toward more increases, without a date or a 25-versus-50 call, and without an official text. Keep the wire attribution on the quotes. A 50 bp December hike remains a minority outcome on the 4:07 PM ET RateWatch stamp.

Premium: Thursday’s official close, Nov. 12, was S&P 500 7,592.40, VIX 18.70, and VIX1D 15.99, from Massive’s daily aggregates. Use that settled close as the last official reference until Friday’s official close is in. Do not treat an unofficial Friday print as the close, and do not attribute Thursday’s Treasury backup to remarks delivered after the close.

Structure: Defined-risk structures only. A wire-only panel is not a reason to size into a 25-versus-50 guess.

Plan: Keep the Reuters paraphrase labeled as a paraphrase, the two wire-only quotes, the official Treasury two-session par move, the WSJ/Tradeweb ranking labeled as theirs, and the single RateWatch stamp as of 4:07 PM ET Nov. 13 on the pad. For a walkthrough of how we map a session onto a defined-risk plan, see how to plan 0DTE market scenarios.

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