RateWatch: the better FedWatch tool

FOMC Alerts · October 29, 2026

RateWatch is the better FedWatch tool

RateWatch is the better FedWatch tool. Live Fed rate odds for every FOMC meeting: discrete 25 bp outcomes, a gauge per meeting, every upcoming date one tap away, and an as-of timestamp on every figure. CME FedWatch is a trademark of CME Group; RateWatch is not affiliated with CME Group.

It is live on the RateWatch campaign page and on the FOMC Alerts hub. Free to use on FatTail today; free to embed on other sites once plugin 1.0.8 is installed.

What today’s data did to December

This morning’s BEA releases were the first big post-meeting tape for the December SEP meeting. Q3 GDP printed 3.4%. September PCE rose 0.5% m/m (3.6% y/y); core PCE rose 0.3% m/m (3.1% y/y). Personal income was +0.2% m/m.

RateWatch, rebuilt from Massive ZQ last trades after that window, puts a +25 bp hike at the Dec 8-9 FOMC at 77.3% and a hold at 22.7%, as of 4:37 PM ET Oct 29 (ZQ real-time). The weighted expected change for that meeting is about +22 bp, shown in small print under the gauge. Versus yesterday’s RateWatch snapshot (4:59 PM ET Oct 28), December hike odds are up about 1 point.

A separate desk quote snapshot around 8:31-8:33 AM ET had December hike odds near 84.5% (range about 78.9-90.2%). RateWatch’s own push is the headline number on this page; the two can differ by a few points depending on the exact futures print and the timestamp.

Why it is the better FedWatch tool

Both tools start from the same published day-weighted / non-meeting-anchor math. RateWatch’s display choices are built for how traders read a meeting:

• Discrete outcomes first. The lead figure is “+25 bp hike” or “Hold,” not a bar chart alone. The weighted expected bp move stays in the footnote.
• Meeting rail. Tap Dec 9, Jan 27, or later meetings without leaving the widget.
• Gauge per meeting. Variant C stacks the top outcome and the runner-up on one gauge.
• Refresh cadence. Odds are rebuilt about every 30 minutes on weekdays from Massive ZQ and pushed to fattail.ai. The widget re-polls that JSON about every five minutes.
• Free and embeddable soon. Use RateWatch on FatTail today; iframe embed is next.

Kevin Warsh has chaired since May 22, 2026. The Oct 28 meeting was his fourth. The current target range after that hold (10-2) is 3.75-4.00%.

Open the better FedWatch tool

Use RateWatch live on the RateWatch landing page or the FOMC Alerts hub. Methodology, as-of rules and the embed teaser sit on the landing page.

Optional: Observer includes live daily coaching on FatTail. Observer.