December Fed Rate Hike Odds: 76.3% Into Data Week

FOMC Alerts · November 2, 2026

December fed rate hike odds: 76.3% into data week

Our December hike odds: 76.3% (hold 23.7%, cut 0%) as of 8:49 AM ET Mon. Nov. 2 — FatTail calc from CME fed funds futures (ZQX6 96.1175 sourced in the same Massive snapshot). Live RateWatch endpoint reads can lag or disagree with the same ZQ inputs, so this piece uses the FatTail recompute, not the endpoint as-of. The number moves with every futures tick. Probability of at least one hike by the Jan. 27 meeting: 83.4% on the same calc (1 − share still in the current 3.75%–4.00% range after January). Cumulative hike probability by Mar. 17: 57.6%. How the math works: fed funds futures probability. Check the live tool anytime on RateWatch.

There is no FOMC meeting this week. The next Fed meeting is Dec. 8–9 (with a new SEP) — see the next Fed meeting on the schedule and our December Fed meeting preview. For the full week calendar, see the FatTail Week Ahead. This piece maps the data that can reprice our December hike odds and the SPX/0DTE structure around those prints. Times below are ET after the Nov. 1 fallback (EST, UTC−5).

On Oct. 28 the Fed held 3.75%–4.00% on a 10–2 vote. The statement said, “Inflation remains elevated.” Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack preferred a quarter-point hike (Federal Reserve).

Third-party week-ahead notes (FXStreet) have cited about 80% for a December hike. That is their figure, not ours.

Prints that can move December odds (Nov. 2–6)

Compact map — for ET times across midterms, refunding, RBA/BoE and speeches, use the FatTail Week Ahead.

Also on the week (details in the Week Ahead): RBA Mon 10:30 PM ET, U.S. midterms Tue, BoE Thu 7:00 AM ET, Hammack panel Thu 8:50 AM ET, UMich typically 10:00 AM ET Fri, Bowman discussion Fri 12:15 PM ET. CPI (October) is next week — Tue Nov. 10 8:30 AM ET. Sources: ISM ROB calendar, BLS November 2026 schedule, ADP, RBA coming-up, Bank of England MPC dates, Cleveland Fed, Federal Reserve November calendar, FEC / usa.gov.

Day by day: where the risk sits

Monday — ISM Manufacturing, then RBA overnight. ISM Manufacturing PMI is a diffusion index from purchasing managers across U.S. manufacturing. Index = % reporting higher + 0.5×% same; above 50 signals expansion vs the prior month. Prices Paid is a separate diffusion index in the same report and is watched as an early goods-inflation read ahead of CPI. Some third-party week-ahead notes (Continuum / FIE / CMC) describe manufacturing Prices Paid as near recent highs; we wait for the ISM release itself rather than cite a level. Map the print to our Dec odds on RateWatch after 10:00, not a directional SPX call. RBA decision + SMP land Mon 10:30 PM ET; presser 11:30 PM ET.

Tuesday — Midterms and JOLTS. FEC: Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026 is the next regularly scheduled federal General Election date. JOLTS (BLS) counts openings, hires, quits and layoffs; September JOLTS is the labor-demand bridge between Monday’s ISM and midweek ADP / Friday payrolls. Structure the session around election headline risk plus the 10:00 labor print — ranges and gap risk, not a side.

Wednesday — ADP, then ISM Services. ADP’s National Employment Report estimates the monthly change in U.S. private-sector employment from ADP payroll data (with Stanford Digital Economy Lab) — not the BLS establishment survey. September NER was private-sector +90,000 (ADP). At 10:00 AM, ISM Services PMI uses the same diffusion construction for services industries that dominate GDP. Same approach: check our odds on RateWatch after each print and let the range come to you.

Thursday — BoE, productivity, claims, Hammack. BoE MPC decision, minutes and Monetary Policy Report at 7:00 AM ET. BLS Productivity & Costs Q3 (preliminary) and initial jobless claims both at 8:30 AM ET. At 8:50 AM ET, Beth Hammack (2026 FOMC voter; dissented Oct. 28 for +25 bp) joins a Cleveland Fed panel at “The SNB and Its Watchers 2026” — panel discussion, not a solo speech. Commentary energy into the open, sized for defined risk.

Friday — Payrolls, UMich, Bowman. The Employment Situation (BLS) is the week’s highest-energy U.S. macro print for SPX / 0DTE / VIX1D: establishment payrolls, CPS unemployment, average hourly earnings and hours. Hot AHE with strong payrolls can firm hike odds; soft payrolls or a rising unemployment rate can ease them. Plan it with live odds and structure: IV into the print, post-print crush risk. For FOMC-day context only (different event): Oct. 28 hold-day SPX +0.28% (FRED), VIXCLS 17.52→16.91; hold-day median |SPX| 0.47% / range 1.09% (FatTail FOMC history, n=63 since 2015). UMich November preliminary is dated Nov. 6; release time is typically 10:00 AM ET. Michelle Bowman discussion at the University of Mississippi Banking and Finance Symposium is on the Fed November calendar at 12:15 PM ET.

Seven report tutorials (plain language)

Short refresher for each of the seven U.S. reports on the map.

1. ISM Manufacturing. What: purchasing-manager diffusion PMI; >50 expansion. Energy: hot PMI/Prices Paid can firm front-end yields and Dec hike odds; soft can ease. Rate path: early goods-inflation and activity read into Dec 8–9’s “accumulation of more information.”
2. JOLTS. What: BLS openings, hires, quits, layoffs. Energy: openings/quits move the labor-demand story between midweek ADP and Friday payrolls. Rate path: dual-mandate employment side into December.
3. ADP NER. What: private-payroll estimate from ADP data, not BLS. Energy: often overnight odds into NFP when the surprise is large. Rate path: warm-up for Friday’s official print — map to Dec odds, not a forecast.
4. ISM Services. What: same diffusion math for services GDP. Energy: Business Activity / Employment / Prices Paid can reprice the front end ahead of payrolls and next week’s CPI. Rate path: services-inflation early read into Dec.
5. Jobless claims. What: weekly DOL/ETA UI filings; four-week average for noise. Energy: rising claims ease hike odds / support risk; falling claims firm labor. Rate path: high-frequency slack into payrolls and Dec.
6. Employment Situation (payrolls). What: BLS payrolls + unemployment + AHE/hours. Energy: typically top-tier for SPX/0DTE/VIX1D ranges and IV. Rate path: last major labor print before the December SEP.
7. UMich sentiment. What: consumer sentiment plus inflation expectations. Energy: usually secondary to payrolls same day; expectations surprises can still move rates. Rate path: inflation-expectations color beside next week’s CPI.

What it means for 0DTE

This is a data week into the December Fed meeting, not an FOMC week. Treat ISM, ADP and payrolls as odds-path and vol-structure events: plan the range, respect IV into each print, and size for post-print crush risk. Hold-day FOMC history (quieter median |SPX| than hike days) is context for last week’s decision, not a template for Friday’s NFP. Keep risk defined. Live updates sit on the FOMC Alerts hub. Scenario framing: how to plan market scenarios for 0DTE SPX.

Related reading: FatTail Week Ahead Nov 2–6 · December Fed meeting · FOMC meeting schedule 2026 · Fed funds futures probability · 0DTE SPX scenarios

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