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Fed, rates and 0DTE: what happened, why it matters, and how to trade it with structure.
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Open Trading OptionsTrading Options New
0DTE method, structures and the daily process.
Latest: How to Calculate Butterfly Max Loss Before Entry
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Open CoachCoach New
Coach series and the Sunday cartoon.
Latest: S1E7: Avoid over thinking, just trade the shape
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Open FOMC AlertsFOMC Alerts New
Fed decisions, the calendar and rate odds.
Latest: The ‘Cheaper Oil Next Year’ Bet Just Got $5 Pricier
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Replays of the daily live show.
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Short clips: one idea at a time.
FOMC in 3 days
FOMC statement and Fed rate decision (Oct 27–28 meeting; no SEP/dot plot)
Statement 2:00 PM ET. Know the calendar, the odds and your structure before the print.
FOMC Alerts
Next Fed decision
FOMC statement and Fed rate decision (Oct 27–28 meeting; no SEP/dot plot)
Fed blackout in effect until Oct 29
Topics
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Fed & FOMC
Rate decisions, the Fed calendar, rate odds and the people who vote.
14 articles
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Rates & Treasuries
The 10-year, term premium, Treasury supply, inflation data and what they do to mortgages.
8 articles
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0DTE Method
Defined-risk structures, butterflies, risk allocation and the daily process.
165 articles
Latest from FatTail
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FOMC Alerts: Fed Calendar, Rates & 0DTE Options
FOMC Alerts hub: latest Fed and FOMC articles, the Fed calendar through December 2026 (ET), FatTail Labs strategy content, and FAQ.
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The Case for an October Fed Rate Hike vs. What’s Priced
Claudia Sahm argues the data favor an October rate hike; markets price about 12-17%. Her case, the counter-case, and the 0DTE read for Oct 28.
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Bonds Stopped Hedging Stocks in 2026. Why It Matters on FOMC Day
The 60-day stock-bond correlation is -0.41 and every 2026 FOMC day closed with SPX down, 10y up. What it means for 0DTE hedges on Oct 28.
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Fed Rate Hike History: How Far Do Hiking Cycles Go?
Since 1994, most completed Fed hiking cycles ran 175bp or more. Markets price a milder path. History vs. pricing, and what it means for 0DTE.
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FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026: Fed Calendar Through December
Two FOMC decisions are left in 2026: Oct 28 and Dec 9 (dot plot), both 2:00 PM ET. Dates, minutes, blackouts and the data days that matter for…
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Reuters Poll: Fed Seen Skipping October, Hiking in December
94 of 100 economists see a hold Oct 28 and all 100 see a December hike. What it means for 0DTE: the presser, dissents, and PCE the next…
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Energy, Tariffs, Housing: What Fed Hikes Can Reach
Gasoline drove over half of September's CPI rise. Tariffs are fading, housing is sticky. What Fed hikes can reach, and what to watch Oct 28 for 0DTE.
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Goldman: AI Adds ~45bp to Core PCE; Williams Open to a Hike
Goldman sees AI adding about 45bp to core PCE, and Williams says another hike might be appropriate. What it means for 0DTE premium and structure.
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Guide to Option Payoff Diagrams for SPX Traders
This guide to option payoff diagrams helps SPX traders read risk, reward, breakevens, and structure before a 0DTE trade is placed, adjusted, or closed.
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How to Calculate Maximum Loss in SPX Options
Learn how to calculate maximum loss on defined-risk SPX option trades, size positions with intent, and keep a planned loss from becoming ruin over time.
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Butterfly Versus Vertical Spread: Which Fits?
Butterfly versus vertical spread: learn how payoff shape, width, placement, and 0DTE conditions affect risk, execution, and trade management decisions.
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A Practical Guide to Capital Allocation Trading
A guide to capital allocation trading for SPX 0DTE traders: size defined-risk positions, protect buying power, and build repeatable execution each day.
Start here: explainers
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Archive
Daily meeting archive (May 2025 – Mar 2026 · 150 posts)