Fed Meeting This Week: The Hold Is Priced. December Isn’t.

FOMC Alerts · October 26, 2026

Fed meeting this week: the times that matter

The Fed meeting this week runs Tuesday and Wednesday, Oct. 27–28. The policy statement is due at 2:00 PM ET on Wednesday, and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference follows at 2:30 PM ET (Federal Reserve). This isn’t a projections meeting, so there’s no new dot plot. Those come in March, June, September and December.

The Fed goes in with its target range at 3.75%–4.00% after a quarter-point increase on Sept. 16. Warsh’s explanation that day was short: “So we removed a dose of accommodation.” (Federal Reserve) Futures and prediction markets price a pause on Wednesday and lean toward another increase in December.

The Fed isn’t the only event. Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday afternoon, Q3 GDP and September PCE land Thursday morning, four other central banks decide, and the Treasury sells $183 billion of 2-, 5- and 7-year notes plus a $30 billion two-year floating-rate note (TreasuryDirect). Below: what’s priced, the week in ET, how SPX has traded on similar Fed days, and what it means for 0DTE structure.

What’s priced for Wednesday and December

In Monday’s overnight trading (quotes as of 7:13 AM ET, Oct. 26), our calculation from fed funds futures using CME’s method put the odds of a hold on Wednesday at 90.0% and a quarter-point hike at 10.0%. Looking through the December meeting, it put an 81.0% chance on the rate ending the year above the current 3.75%–4.00% range.

Futures: Monday overnight quotes (6:33–7:13 AM ET, not settlements), CBOT via Yahoo Finance (delayed). Prediction markets: pulled Monday 7:24 AM ET.

One caveat: the prediction markets price the move at the December meeting itself, not the path from today, so compare them loosely. For how the futures math works, see our guide to reading Fed rate odds. Some week-ahead notes cite a higher December number without a source. We couldn’t reproduce it, so we use the figures above.

Economists mostly agree on Wednesday: 94 of 100 in a Reuters poll expect a hold, according to Newsquawk. Recent comments from Governor Michelle Bowman and New York Fed President John Williams suggested they didn’t favor hikes at back-to-back meetings, Investopedia reported. Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, summed up the split in a commentary: “All signs are that the Federal Reserve will need to continue lifting interest rates in the near term, yet comments from a few key officials suggest they’re unlikely to do so at the October policy meeting” (Investopedia).

Fed week calendar, Oct. 26–30 (all times ET)

Times come from the Fed, BEA, BLS, TreasuryDirect, the central banks and company investor-relations pages. Where we couldn’t confirm a time, it’s marked “time TBC”.

Sources: Federal Reserve, BEA, BLS, TreasuryDirect, ADP, the Conference Board, central bank calendars, company investor-relations pages.

Day by day: where the risk sits

Monday‘s main event is the 1:00 PM two-year auction. The 2-year yield closed Friday at 4.69% and the 10-year at 5.00% (Treasury).

Tuesday brings the only fresh private jobs data before the decision: ADP’s weekly Pulse, which averaged 18,500 jobs a week in the four weeks to Oct. 3 (ADP). Wednesday’s ADP item is the company’s earnings (ADP), not a labor release. At 10:00 AM, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index follows a September drop of 6.7 points to 81.9; consumers’ average 12-month inflation expectation was 6.1% (Conference Board). The Reserve Bank of New Zealand decides at 9:00 PM.

Wednesday starts with the Bank of Canada at 9:45 AM. The Fed statement lands at 2:00 PM and Warsh speaks at 2:30. Alphabet’s call follows at 4:30 and Microsoft’s webcast at 5:30.

Thursday opens with Q3 GDP and September PCE at 8:30 AM (BEA), with consensus at 3.0% growth, per Newsquawk. Our Q3 GDP and core PCE preview covers what to watch. Jobless claims, 194,000 in the week to Oct. 17 per CNBC, come out at the same time. The ECB decides at 9:15 AM, Amazon reports after the close and the Bank of Japan decides overnight.

Friday has the Q3 Employment Cost Index at 8:30 AM. In Q2, compensation costs rose 0.9% on the quarter (BLS). It lands after the decision, so it feeds the December debate.

A priced hold still moves SPX

An expected hold doesn’t guarantee a quiet afternoon. Our calculation from FOMC-day history since 2019 covers 21 scheduled holds at meetings without new projections, like this one:

• Median SPX move, close to close: 0.65% in either direction.
• Days with a move of 1% or more: 9 of 21 (42.9%).
• VIX lower on the day: 12 of 21 (57.1%).

This year, the January and April holds barely moved, while July 29 fell 1.52% at a meeting with three hawkish dissents, per Newsquawk. The sample is small, and this describes the past. It isn’t a forecast.

The starting point: SPX closed Friday at 7,623.68, down 0.52%, and the VIX at 19.45, up 0.42 (Yahoo Finance).

What it means for 0DTE

• Energy: Wednesday is scheduled event risk, and the days around it carry their own: auctions Monday through Thursday, GDP and PCE Thursday at 8:30, the ECB at 9:15 and Big Tech after the bell.
• Premium: The VIX at 19.45 sets the price going in. On past holds like this one the VIX fell more often than not on decision day, but 57% is a lean, not a rule. Premium on Thursday expiries has to price GDP, PCE and Wednesday’s earnings at once.
• Structure: A 0DTE position open at 2:00 PM sits through the statement and the press conference inside 30 minutes. Keep risk defined, know the max loss before entry and size for a gap if you hold anything past Wednesday’s close.
• Plan, don’t predict: Map three outcomes before 2:00. A hold that leaves December where it’s priced, a hold that moves December odds in either direction, and the 10.0% tail of a hike on Wednesday. Decide in advance which one changes your structure.

Related reading: FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026, every remaining Fed date through December, including the Dec. 9 decision the odds above point to. For every Fed preview and recap, see the FOMC Alerts hub and the latest FOMC Alerts posts.

Trade it with structure

Observer is a six-week trial and training program: train with Coach for $17/week. You get everything a full coaching member gets, every week, and the six weeks are designed to install pro trading habits: courses on strategy, process and risk management, live daily coaching, a Discord trade room with hundreds of experienced traders, and the platform (heatmap, GEX tools, risk graph, position analyzer and journal). Start Observer.

Educational content, not investment advice. Options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors.