FOMC Voters 2026: 12 Voters, 10 Dissents So Far

FOMC Alerts · October 28, 2026

FOMC voters 2026: twelve officials vote on today’s decision, released at 2:00 PM ET, and with a hold about 91% priced, the vote count is the one part of the release markets can’t fully price. This year already has 10 dissenting votes, the most of any year in our 2008-2026 data, and the three hawks behind the July dissents have only two votes left. Here is who votes, how often dissents happen, and what history says they do to the SPX day.

Who are the FOMC voters in 2026?

The Federal Reserve lists 12 voting members for 2026: the seven governors, the New York Fed president, and four rotating regional presidents. The dissent column covers official statements from 2024 through 2026.

The alternates are Barkin, Daly, Goolsbee, Shukla (New York Fed first vice president) and Venable (interim, Atlanta). Next year the rotating seats pass to Chicago, Richmond, Atlanta and San Francisco, alongside New York. That leaves Hammack, Kashkari and Logan with two votes as members: today and Dec 9. One twist for history buffs: Kashkari, now a hawkish dissenter, dissented against three hikes in 2017.

Fed dissenters in 2026: who voted against?

From the Fed’s own statements for January, March, April, June, July and September:

That adds up to 10 dissenting votes in six meetings. The prior high in our 2008-2026 data was 9, in 2013 and again in 2025, and April’s four dissents were the most at any single meeting in that window. The direction also flipped mid-year: the early dissents wanted cuts, and the later ones wanted the hike that arrived in September, when the vote went back to unanimous.

FOMC dissent history: how often do dissents happen?

More often than the unanimous headlines suggest. Our count of scheduled meetings (kb/fomc_history, built from Fed statements):

• Since 2015, 28 of 93 meetings (30.1%) had at least one dissent.
• Since 2008, 67 of 149 meetings (45.0%) did, a figure lifted by the crisis years.
• Three or more dissents happened five times since 2015, the latest in July.

Do Fed dissents move the S&P 500?

Not on their own. Comparing holds since 2015, a dissent hasn’t come with a wider SPX day. All numbers are our calculation from Cboe, FRED and Yahoo daily data.

The broader picture is the same. Across all 93 scheduled FOMC days since 2015, dissent days had a median range of 1.10% and unanimous days 1.14%. What sets the day apart is the FOMC itself: the median range on FOMC days was 1.11%, against 0.87% on other days.

The tail case is recent. Since 2019, when every meeting got a press conference, there has been just one hold with hike dissents: Jul 29, 2026. SPX fell 1.52% on a 1.84% range, VIX rose 2.45 points, the 2-year fell 4bp, and SPX rose 1.66% the next day. That’s n=1, an anecdote rather than a pattern, and daily data can’t separate the 2:00 vote from the 2:30 press conference.

Who could dissent on October 28?

Everything in this section is a forecast. The range runs from zero to three hawkish dissents.

• Rabobank (Oct 23) expects a hold, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan likely to repeat their July dissents for a hike.
• KPMG (Oct 22) has a unanimous hold as its base case, with the risk of one hawkish dissent; it names Logan as the greater dissent risk.
• Continuum Economics (Oct 20) would be surprised if Hammack and Logan didn’t dissent, and calls Kashkari closer.
• The Bond Buyer (Oct 26) quotes Federated Hermes’ Karen Manna and Ned Davis Research as open to as many as three dissents, while D.A. Davidson’s James Ragan doesn’t expect a unanimous vote.
• Regions (Oct 23) expects a split vote, and Newsquawk (Oct 23) notes analysts who think the three may dissent again.

The dissent debate is about timing more than direction. New York Fed President John Williams, the Committee’s vice chair, said on Oct 13: “I haven’t changed my view that it may be appropriate to have one more rate hike” (CNBC). Our calculation from fed funds futures using CME’s method, as of about 9:19 PM ET on Tue Oct 27, puts a hold today at 91.1% and at least one hike by Dec 9 at 79.1%. A hawkish dissent today would be a vote for doing now what the market already expects by December. For how those odds are built, see our October FOMC hike odds.

What do FOMC voters mean for SPX 0DTE today?

• Energy: The tally prints at 2:00 PM ET with the decision and the statement text, half an hour before Warsh speaks; our FOMC statement changes guide covers the phrases to watch in that text. Base rates say a dissent alone hasn’t widened the SPX day, so read the count as a December signal, not a volatility trigger. Zero dissents would be the dovish surprise relative to forecasts; three would match July.
• Premium: Let VIX set the price. VIX closed Tue Oct 27 at 17.52 (Cboe), still in FatTail’s Goldilocks 1 regime (17–24.5), near its lower edge. Check the SPX expected move before 2:00; July’s 1.84% range shows the tail exists.
• Structure: In Goldilocks 1 the reference SPX/ES butterfly width is 30–40 points, with the debit at 5–10% of width. If VIX opens in another regime, use its widths: 20–30 under 17 (ZombieLand), 40–50 in Goldilocks 2 (24.5–32), 50+ above 32 (Chaos). Defined risk only, max loss known before entry.
• Plan, don’t predict: Write down what zero, one and three dissents would mean for December pricing before 2:00, then let the 2:30 press conference confirm or override it. Our scenario-planning guide for 0DTE SPX lays out the if-then format.

Market context, closes Tue Oct 27: SPX 7722.60, VIX 17.52 (Cboe), 2-year 4.70%, 10-year 4.99% (U.S. Treasury). Prediction markets, separate from futures, as of 4:37 PM ET Tue: Kalshi’s October hike contract 0.05 bid / 0.06 ask, Polymarket October no change 0.948 / 0.951.

When do the FOMC voters meet next?

After today, the next FOMC meeting is Dec 8-9, with the decision on Dec 9. It’s the last vote of 2026 for Hammack, Kashkari and Logan, and the meeting the 79.1% Dec-by-Dec-9 hike odds are pricing. All dates are in our FOMC meeting schedule 2026.

Related reading: Fed meeting this week · FOMC Alerts hub · All FOMC Alerts coverage

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