FOMC Dissent Watch: The Vote Line at 2:00

FOMC Alerts · October 28, 2026

FOMC dissent, in short: the rate action for today is mostly priced, but the vote line that prints with it at 2:00 PM ET is not. Our calculation from fed funds futures using CME’s method, as of about 9:19 PM ET on Tue Oct 27, puts a Wednesday hold near 91.1% and a 25bp hike near 8.9%, with at least one hike by Dec 9 near 79.1%. July’s hold was 9–3 with three hike dissents; September’s hike was 12–0. Forecasts for today’s tally span zero to three hawkish dissents — all labelled forecasts below. See our Fed meeting this week day map for the 2:00 / 2:30 clock.

Who can dissent at today’s FOMC?

Twelve officials vote. The three regional presidents who dissented for a hike on Jul 29 — Beth Hammack (Cleveland), Neel Kashkari (Minneapolis) and Lorie Logan (Dallas) — still vote today and again on Dec 9, then rotate off as voters for 2027. The full 2026 roster is on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC page. This page owns the overnight vote-line watch, not the roster encyclopedia.

2026 already has 10 dissenting votes across Jan–Sep statements — the most of any year in our 2008–2026 history file (prior highs: 9 in 2013 and 2025). Direction flipped mid-year from cut-dissents to hike-dissents.

What have Logan and Waller said recently?

On Oct 1, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan said in prepared remarks: “Still, I currently estimate the target range needs to rise an additional 50 basis points or more to appropriately balance the outlook and risks for our dual mandate goals.” (Dallas Fed). That is the hawkish voter line going into a meeting the futures market still prices as a hold.

Governor Christopher Waller, speaking in Istanbul on Oct 8, left room on timing: “The hikes do not need to come at consecutive meetings, but they should be in place in an acceptable period of time.” (Federal Reserve Board speech). Hammack’s Oct 12 NABE remarks (Cleveland Fed) argued for a restrictive stance and preferred smaller, relatively quick adjustments — paraphrase only; she did not name Oct 28.

What do forecasters expect for today’s FOMC vote?

Every line below is a forecast, not a fact. The published span runs from a unanimous hold to a repeat of July’s three hike dissents.

• BBH (Elias Haddad, Oct 25): leans 9–3 hold, with Hammack, Kashkari and Logan dissenting for +25bp — same as July.
• RSM (Joseph Brusuelas, Oct 27): hold with at least two dissents (Hammack, Logan), possibly Kashkari.
• Rabobank (Oct 23): likely Hammack, Kashkari, Logan repeat July.
• KPMG (Oct 22): base case unanimous hold, with risk of one hawkish dissent (Logan the bigger risk).

How the 91.1% hold / 79.1% December figures are built is in fed funds futures probability; the October path context is in our October FOMC hike odds.

Do FOMC dissents move SPX and VIX on the day?

On average, no — not by themselves. Our calculation on scheduled holds since 2015 (kb/fomc_history): unanimous holds (n=48) had a median intraday SPX range of 1.08%, median |close-to-close| of 0.50%, and median VIX change of −0.30; holds with one or more dissents (n=15) were 1.09% / 0.46% / −0.21. Dissents alone have not widened the SPX day.

One anecdote, not a pattern: Jul 29, 2026 was the only hold-with-hike-dissents since every meeting got a presser (2019+). SPX −1.52% on a 1.84% range, VIX +2.45 points, 2-year −4bp; next day SPX +1.66%. Read today’s count as a December-path signal more than a same-day vol trigger. Know the SPX expected move before 2:00; open-to-close VIX base rates on FOMC days are in VIX term structure explained.

• Energy: Scheduled event risk. The tally prints at 2:00 with the decision — about 30 minutes before Warsh’s presser. Zero dissents would be the dovish surprise relative to the forecast span; three would match July.
• Premium: Let VIX price it. Recent closes have sat near the low end of Goldilocks 1 (VIX 17 to 24.5); ZombieLand is below 17, Goldilocks 2 is 24.5 to 32, Chaos above 32. Do not assume IV reliably deflates after the presser.
• Structure: Defined risk only. Size so a tag of either wing is survivable — for example an iron condor with max loss known before entry.
• Plan, don’t predict: Write what 0, 1 and 3 hawkish dissents would mean for December pricing before 2:00, then let the 2:30 presser confirm or override. Scenario format: our 0DTE SPX scenario guide.

What comes after today’s Fed vote?

The next scheduled FOMC after today is Dec 8–9, with a SEP — the last 2026 vote for Hammack, Kashkari and Logan. Every remaining 2026 date is on our FOMC meeting schedule 2026.

Related reading: Fed meeting this week · October FOMC hike odds · All FOMC Alerts coverage

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